Former Chief of Staff Lord Gavin Barwell told LBC that historically, if a party fails to secure more than 30 percent of a local election share of the vote, they lose the next general election. Amid fears that Mr Johnson’s popularity among the public has plummeted, with the local election results signalling that, Lord Barwell said at the very least the PM is “on course for a hung parliament”.
Lord Barwell said: “These election results get confused when people start talking about seat changes and which years these seats will last for.
“So, I think there’s a simple stat that everyone should focus on, which is the national equivalent share of the vote that each party got.
“And in the latest tally, the Conservatives are on about 30 percent and Labour are on about 35 percent.
“I think that tells you two things. In terms of the Conservatives, they’re down pretty much to the level where you’re in real trouble.
“If you look historically, if the governing party goes to about 30 percent or below, they tend to lose the next general election.
“And in terms of Labour, they are nowhere near where they would need to be to win outright.
“The opposition party needs to get to about 40 percent or above to be on course to win outright.
“So if you add those two things together, I think it suggests we’re on course for a hung parliament at the next election. The Prime Minister and Conservative MPs should be worried about that.”
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Despite admitting this morning that the overnight results had been “tough”, the PM has said he will continue to focus on matters at hand.
He said he would focus on the task of dealing with the “economic aftershocks” of Covid.
He said: “This Government is absolutely determined to keep going with every ounce of compassion and ingenuity that we have, get people through the economic aftershocks.
“We had a tough night in some parts of the country but on the other hand in other parts of the country you are still seeing Conservatives going forward and making quite remarkable gains in places that haven’t voted Conservative for a long time, if ever.”